ABOUT HOLVAR
What is HOLVAR?
Real-time intelligence on global arms transfers. We aggregate public registry filings, congressional notifications, and conflict-zone signals into one map.
How fresh is the data?
Active deals refresh on a rolling 24-hour cycle. Conflict signals refresh every 6 hours. Market correlations stream live.
Who is this for?
Defense analysts, journalists, policy researchers, and institutional investors tracking the defense sector.
CONFIDENCE LEVELS
What does "In Registry" mean?
The deal appears in an authoritative public registry of arms transfers.
What does "Confirmed" mean?
Verified by an official government or supplier announcement.
What does "Reported" mean?
Disclosed by credible reporting but not yet officially confirmed by the parties involved.
What does "Detected" mean?
Identified through automated monitoring of global news coverage; treat as an early signal, not verification.
What does "Sanctioned" or "Embargoed" mean?
The route or recipient is currently subject to international sanctions or arms embargoes.
WHAT WE TRACK / DON'T TRACK
Does HOLVAR track covert transfers?
No. We track only deals visible in the public record. Covert or "deniable" transfers are by definition outside our scope.
Does HOLVAR track small arms or ammunition?
We track small-arms deals at or above the registry threshold. Bulk ammunition flows below this threshold are excluded.
How are deal values estimated?
Where contract value is publicly disclosed, we use it. Where not, we apply a tiered estimation model based on system class and quantity. Estimated values are flagged.
What time range does HOLVAR cover?
Deals from 2000 onward. The default view shows 2024–2026.
MEMBERSHIP
What's the difference between Free and Tier 2?
Free users access the full map, all confidence tiers, and public deal summaries. Tier 2 unlocks source citations, dark-signal detail, and full export.
How do I become a Tier 2 member?
Tier 2 access is currently invite-only — contact us via X (
@Holvar_Papers) for early access.
Can I export the data?
Tier 2 members can export filtered deal sets as CSV.